SHIP Seanergy Maritime Holdings

Dry Bulk · Capesize / Newcastlemax · 178 documents

Seanergy Maritime Holdings' 18-vessel dry bulk fleet — 16 Capesize and 2 Newcastlemax — should earn about $31,000 a day in 2026Q3 and pay $0.25 a share. That is our forecast (PATTERN payout on MODELLED TCE). All of those vessel-days are already fixed at rates Seanergy Maritime Holdings has disclosed.

Last paid · 2026Q2

$0.35

9.2% annualised

$32,355/d earned

TTM $0.88 (5.8% trailing) · +75% vs prior quarter

2026Q3 · our model

$0.25

6.6% annualised

$31,000/d modelled

PATTERN payout on MODELLED TCE

low EPS $0.95 · 100% booked

2026Q4 · our model

$0.25

6.6% annualised

$30,844/d modelled

EPS $0.94

Yields annualise each quarter ×4 at the last close, $15.28 (2026-10-16). Our model is not company guidance.

What will Seanergy Maritime Holdings pay for 2026Q3?

Company said

Seanergy Maritime Holdings has booked 100% of its 2026Q3 days (2026-07-30, source; by class on the right). It does not say what it will pay — turning its rates into a dividend is our job.
Stated policy: “we intend to distribute approximately 50% of our operating cash flow ... Less: debt repayments ... Less: discretionary quarterly reserve (this amount will be assessed by the board of directors on a quarterly basis ...)”

$31,000/d

booked average

est. $0.25

on booked days

Our model

Booked days at those rates, open days at market rates; then Seanergy Maritime Holdings pays out 19% of the cash above its $13,387/d payout floor (own history, 6 quarters; payout floor from dividend history). It has paid from cash when rates ran below its $21,454/d cash costs. Track record ↓

$31,000/d

modelled

$0.25

low confidence · PATTERN payout on MODELLED TCE

Your scenario

Booked days at the company’s rates, open days at the rate you set. Set the rates ↓

—

your rates

—

your rates

Booked vs market $/day

Class	Booked	At	Spot now
Capesize	71%	$31,000	—
Newcastlemax	71%	$31,000	—

Track record forecast vs paid

Quarter	Forecast	Paid	Miss
2026Q2	$0.18	$0.35	-50%
2026Q1	$0.10	$0.20	-49%
2025Q4	$0.25	$0.20	+23%
2025Q3	$0.16	$0.13	+25%

At 2026Q2’s actual $32,355/d, our model gives $0.27 against $0.35 declared (6 quarters, out-of-sample R² 0.605).

Rates in, dividend out 2026Q3

Model Your scenario

Set a rate per vessel class and the statement below re-prices: our model’s figures in one column, yours beside them. These are your numbers, not our forecast and not company guidance; nothing you set is saved.

Latest rates

Class	Company earned	Booked 2026Q3	Market now	8 weeks
Capesize · 16	$32,3552026Q2 · fleet avg	$31,000100% of days	—licensed index only
Newcastlemax · 2	$32,3552026Q2 · fleet avg	$31,000100% of days	—licensed index only

Company earned: the issuer’s own reported TCE (linked). Booked: cover the issuer printed for 2026Q3. Market now: the median across the broker route prints we hold for the class — a derived blend, not a vendor index; the trend is rebased to 100 eight weeks ago. Dry-bulk class rates exist only as licensed Baltic Exchange indices, which this site does not republish.

Your rates open days only — booked days stay at the booked rate

Capesize 100% booked at $31,000 · 0 open days

$/d

Newcastlemax 100% booked at $31,000 · 0 open days

$/d

2026Q3 P&L and cash

Model

Your scenario

Vessel-days, days modelled

Ships on the fleet list × the quarter's calendar days for capesize, newcastlemax: no off-hire or drydock days are deducted there.

1,656

By class

Class	Days	Model $/day	Yours $/day
Capesize	1,472	31,000	31,000
Newcastlemax	184	31,000	31,000

Fleet TCE, $/day modelled

31,000

Revenue (TCE basis), $m modelled

Vessel-days × fleet TCE.

51.3

Vessel opex, $m assumed

2026Q2: $12.1m over 1,748 vessel-days, held per day. Disclosed, but not the model’s break-even: these cost lines do not explain the company’s dividend history, so the break-even below is the one its dividends imply.

(11.5)

G&A, $m assumed

2026Q2: $6.9m over 1,748 vessel-days, held per day. Disclosed, but not the model’s break-even: these cost lines do not explain the company’s dividend history, so the break-even below is the one its dividends imply.

(6.5)

EBITDA, $m assumed

Disclosed, but not the model’s break-even: these cost lines do not explain the company’s dividend history, so the break-even below is the one its dividends imply.

33.3

Hire for chartered-in ships, $m

Not on file for any quarter (not extracted, or not disclosed).

—

Interest expense, $m assumed

2026Q2: $4.3m over 1,748 vessel-days, held per day. Disclosed, but not the model’s break-even: these cost lines do not explain the company’s dividend history, so the break-even below is the one its dividends imply.

(4.0)

Scheduled debt amortisation, $m stated

2026Q2: $14.2m over 1,748 vessel-days, held per day (the issuer’s scheduled principal). Disclosed, but not the model’s break-even: these cost lines do not explain the company’s dividend history, so the break-even below is the one its dividends imply.

(13.5)

Drydock cost, $m

No separate drydock cash line on file.

—

At the payout floor, $m pattern

The rate below which this company’s dividends stop, from its own history. It sits below its own cash costs of $21,454/day: it has paid from cash when rates ran under them.

(22.2)

Payout floor, $/day pattern

The rate below which this company’s dividends stop, from its own history. It sits below its own cash costs of $21,454/day: it has paid from cash when rates ran under them.

13,387

Cushion vs fleet TCE, $/day

17,613

Cash above the payout floor, $m modelled

Revenue − payout floor × vessel-days: what the dividend is paid from in this model, not net of the company's cash costs.

29.2

Maintenance capex, $m

Not disclosed as a cash line; not in the model’s cash.

—

Dividend policy pattern

“we intend to distribute approximately 50% of our operating cash flow ... Less: debt repayments ... Less: discretionary quarterly reserve (this amount will be assessed by the board of directors on a quarterly basis ...)”

The stated policy is not a percentage the model can apply. It paid 19% of the cash above break-even over 2025Q1–2026Q2 (6 quarters); that share is applied to the cash line.

Output	Model	Your scenario	Δ
Estimated distributable cash, $m	5.5
Estimated DPS, $/share modelled	$0.25
Forward yield, run-rate %	6.6%
vs last declared ($0.35, 2026Q2)	-28%

Yield annualises the quarter’s DPS × 4 (a run-rate, not a forecast of the year) against the $15.28 close on 2026-10-16.

Showing the model’s own figures. Setting your own rates needs JavaScript.

Dividend per share declared · model · you

Market context — rates, the dividend, and the price

Rates and dividend — realized rate and declared

Realized fleet TCEModelDeclared DPS

forecast →

$0k

$20k

$40k

2025Q3

2025Q4

2026Q1

2026Q2

2026Q3

2026Q4

Declared DPS, USD/share — solid: declared · dashed: model · shaded: the range this model has been wrong by

$0.13

$0.20

$0.35

$0.25

2025Q3 rec 2025-12-29 · pay 2026-01-09 2025Q4 rec 2026-03-27 · pay 2026-04-10 2026Q1 rec 2026-06-29 · pay 2026-07-10 2026Q2 rec 2026-09-25 · pay 2026-10-09

Bars are the fleet TCE this issuer reported. Dashed-outline bars are the model estimate — see Dividend forecast.

The line is the declared dividend per share — dashed where it is the model's estimate. The shaded band is how wrong this model has actually been over its 4 scored quarters — the observed spread, not a symmetric guess around it, with a tick per observation so its width can be counted. Those quarters came in 50% below, 49% below, 23% above, 25% above what was paid. It reaches $0.51 per share, past the top of this chart. Model estimate — not issuer guidance.

Forward (our model — model quarter ×4): $1.01/yr · @ $15.28 (as of 2026-10-16) = 6.6% yield (forward, model) · Trailing TTM $0.88/yr = 5.8%

DPS-vs-TCE fit R² 0.859 · 6 qtrs

Fit crosses zero at $13,387/d — the TCE below which this fit implies no payout

forecast accuracy →

Price and the yield it implied

Latest: 2026-Q2 declared $0.35/share on 2026-08-06, 8.1% annualised against the $17.24 close that day.

The continuous line is the daily closing price in dollars — the raw close, not a dividend-adjusted one, which would back-adjust away the very payouts being measured. The second line carries 4 declared dividends and is marked nowhere else — each annualised ×4 and divided by the close on, or last before, the day it was declared. A quarter with no dividend has no mark. The segments between the marks connect them; they are not measured. This is what the share yielded at the time, not what those dividends would yield at today's price. Prices start 2025-08-29, so anything declared before then is not plotted.

How we got the number

How to read this page

Every figure here is built the same way: the fleet's vessel-days are priced at the rate its classes earned, costs and debt service come off, and what is left is measured against the dividend the company actually declared. Nothing is estimated where it can be sourced, and a number that cannot be sourced is withheld rather than filled in. The full method, and the rates behind it →

Where SHIP departs from that

Vessel-days are modelled from the fleet list (ships × days in the quarter); no issuer day count is curated for this quarter.
Capesize: SSY Capesize Index SPOT proxy $47,050/day (our mean of 2026Q3's monthly medians across the SSY T/C routes, 3/3 months, 48 weekly print(s); the quarter has ended, so it is priced at its own months; route values are licensed and not shown; no Gibson route for dry class).
Capesize: the issuer's own TCE estimate for the whole quarter, $31,000/day, prices every day (71% of days fixed, the rest at the issuer's own pricing of its open days) — owner 2026-10-19.

What drives it — fleet TCE, 2026Q3

Expected fleet TCE

$31,000/d

STATED

Days already fixed

100%

at disclosed rates

Earnings bridge — 2026Q2 → 2026Q3

Anchor DPS (2026Q2) $0.35

TCE rate change — fleet TCE $31,000 expected vs $32,355 at anchor (model rate sensitivity) −$0.02

Booked cover — issuer guidance targets a different quarter than the anchor — no same-vintage comparison TBD

Expected DPS (2026Q3) $0.25

Dividend history & forecast accuracy

Hit rate

Avg error

36.7%

Quarters tracked

Fit crosses zero

$13,387/day

Fit

6 qtrs · R² 0.859

Upcoming

Quarter	Ex-date (est.)	Forecast DPS	Actual DPS
2026Q3 E	—	$0.25	—
2026Q4 E	—	$0.25	—

Quarter	Ex-date	Forecast DPS	Actual DPS	Error
2026Q2	—	$0.18	$0.35	-50.0%
2026Q1	—	$0.10	$0.20	-49.0%
2025Q4	—	$0.25	$0.20	+23.4%
2025Q3	—	$0.16	$0.13	+24.6%

DPS method: payout of cash above break-even.

Financials & fleet

Latest quarter 2026Q2 2 qtrs old

Fleet

Realized TCE

$32,355/d 2026Q2

Declared DPS

$0.35 2026Q2

TTM DPS

$0.88

Coverage

—

Revenue

$55.7M

Opex

$12.1M

Net income

$26.2M

16× capesize · 2× newcastlemax current

Fleet model — 2026Q3

Fleet model estimate — not issuer guidance.

Class	Ships	TC	Spot	% Fixed	Guided $/d	Spot $/d	Blended $/d	QTD rev $M	Modeled Q rev $M
Capesize	16	—	—	100%	31,000	—	31,000	—	45.6
Newcastlemax	2	—	—	100%	31,000	—	31,000	—	5.7
Total	18						31,000	—	51.3

Guided rates are issuer-booked cover for 2026Q3 blended with the company's own guidance for the open days.

Bear — booked only

$51.3M rev

DPS $0.25

Base — index

$51.3M rev

DPS $0.25

Bull — recent peak

— rev

DPS —

Expected DPS

$0.25/share

Annualized

$1.01/yr

Revenue if rates hold

$51.3M

Confidence

LOW 36.7% err

Bear counts booked cover only, with open days at zero; Base is the next-quarter estimate above, which prices the open days; Bull needs a recent peak index, which this fleet's classes do not have.

Model gaps & assumptions

capesize: SSY Capesize Index SPOT proxy $47,050/day (our mean of 2026Q3's monthly medians across the SSY T/C routes, 3/3 months, 48 weekly print(s); the quarter has ended, so it is priced at its own months; route values are licensed and not shown; no Gibson route for dry class) · capesize: the issuer's own TCE estimate for the whole quarter, $31,000/day, prices every day (71% of days fixed, the rest at the issuer's own pricing of its open days) — owner 2026-10-19 · newcastlemax: SSY Capesize Index SPOT proxy $47,050/day (our mean of 2026Q3's monthly medians across the SSY T/C routes, 3/3 months, 48 weekly print(s); the quarter has ended, so it is priced at its own months; route values are licensed and not shown; no Gibson route for dry class) · newcastlemax: priced off the Capesize index — a neighbouring market (208k vs 180k dwt), ASSUMED, no premium added (owner 2026-10-19) · newcastlemax: the issuer's own TCE estimate for the whole quarter, $31,000/day, prices every day (71% of days fixed, the rest at the issuer's own pricing of its open days) — owner 2026-10-19 · DPS = 19% (own history) of cash above the $13,387/day payout floor (dividend history) over 1,656 vessel-days · stated policy (50% of cash after debt service, less a reserve the board sets each quarter) is context only: the reserve is not published, so the formula cannot be computed · its dividends stop at $13,387/day, below its own cash costs of $21,454/day: it has paid from cash when rates ran under its costs, so the floor is its payout behaviour, not a cash break-even

Forecast accuracy — fleet TCE

The model's fleet TCE for each quarter — the fleet-mix-weighted Gibson class benchmark, one quantity per fleet, never a shared class rate — scored against the TCE the company went on to report. Error is model minus reported, as a share of reported — positive means the model was too high.

Quarters scored

Avg abs. error

17.8%

Quarter	Model TCE	Reported TCE	Error
2026Q2	$24,300/day	$32,355/day	-24.9%
2026Q1	$37,825/day	$24,219/day	+56.2%
2025Q4	$27,562/day	$26,614/day	+3.6%
2025Q3	$25,275/day	$23,476/day	+7.7%
2025Q2	$21,538/day	$19,807/day	+8.7%
2025Q1	$12,650/day	$13,403/day	-5.6%

Profit statement highlights

Line	2026Q2	2026Q1	YoY Δ
Revenue	$55.7M	$42.9M	+48.5%
Opex	$12.1M	$12.6M	-12.2%
Net income	$26.2M	$9.7M	> +500%

reconciliation: insufficient data for an earnings bridge (2026Q2) earnings bridge incomplete — treat income-derived figures as provisional

Full P&L grid — 6 quarters

Line item	2026Q2	2026Q1	2025Q4	2025Q3	2025Q2	2025Q1
Revenue $M	55.7	42.9	49.4	47.0	37.5	24.2
Voyage expenses $M	1.3	1.4	1.1	2.6	1.1	0.7
Vessel opex $M	12.1	12.6	13.3	14.1	13.8	12.5
G&A $M	6.9	—	—	—	—	—
Depreciation $M	9.2	9.6	9.4	9.4	9.1	8.3
Interest expense, gross $M	—	—	—	—	—	5.2
Net income $M	26.2	9.7	12.5	12.8	2.9	−6.8
Declared DPS	0.35	0.20	0.20	0.13	0.05	0.05

Profit statement – highlights SEC EDGAR company facts

Line	FY2009	FY2010	FY2011	FY2012	FY2013	FY2014	H1 2015	2015Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2015	H1 2016	2016Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2016	H1 2017	2017Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2017	H1 2018	2018Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2018	H1 2019	FY2019	H1 2020	FY2020	H1 2021	FY2021	H1 2022	FY2022	H1 2023	FY2023	H1 2024	FY2024	H1 2025	FY2025	YoY Δ
Revenue	6.3	54.8	71.6	49.0	23.8	2.1	1.8	7.1	11.7	15.7	11.3	36.0	32.9	22.3	74.8	38.1	24.6	91.5	34.8	86.5	22.4	63.3	48.2	153.1	62.5	125.0	46.4	110.2	81.4	167.5	61.7	158.1	-5.6%
EBITDA / operating income	40.4	18.4	-183.6	-181.1	19.3	81.8	-1.8	-4.4	-7.1	-7.5	-3.8	-14.7	-1.9	4.8	2.8	0.7	3.2	4.3	-3.6	12.0	-8.4	-0.3	9.0	65.9	16.8	29.7	6.7	21.3	34.1	62.6	6.5	43.3	-30.8%
Operating expenses	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net result	31.6	1.6	-197.8	-193.8	10.9	80.3	-2.1	-5.9	-9.0	-11.9	-6.9	-24.6	-9.6	-0.1	-3.2	-12.3	-3.2	-21.1	-15.5	-11.7	-19.6	-18.4	0.6	41.3	9.6	17.2	-3.5	2.3	24.3	43.5	-4.0	21.2	-51.3%
Declared DPS	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Full P&L grid — 4 lines × 32 quarters

Line item	FY2009	FY2010	FY2011	FY2012	FY2013	FY2014	H1 2015	Q4 2015	FY2015	H1 2016	Q4 2016	FY2016	H1 2017	Q4 2017	FY2017	H1 2018	Q4 2018	FY2018	H1 2019	FY2019	H1 2020	FY2020	H1 2021	FY2021	H1 2022	FY2022	H1 2023	FY2023	H1 2024	FY2024	H1 2025	FY2025
Operating revenues	6.3	54.8	71.6	49.0	23.8	2.1	1.8	7.1	11.7	15.7	11.3	36.0	32.9	22.3	74.8	38.1	24.6	91.5	34.8	86.5	22.4	63.3	48.2	153.1	62.5	125.0	46.4	110.2	81.4	167.5	61.7	158.1
Operating expenses	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income	40.4	18.4	-183.6	-181.1	19.3	81.8	-1.8	-4.4	-7.1	-7.5	-3.8	-14.7	-1.9	4.8	2.8	0.7	3.2	4.3	-3.6	12.0	-8.4	-0.3	9.0	65.9	16.8	29.7	6.7	21.3	34.1	62.6	6.5	43.3
Profit for the period	31.6	1.6	-197.8	-193.8	10.9	80.3	-2.1	-5.9	-9.0	-11.9	-6.9	-24.6	-9.6	-0.1	-3.2	-12.3	-3.2	-21.1	-15.5	-11.7	-19.6	-18.4	0.6	41.3	9.6	17.2	-3.5	2.3	24.3	43.5	-4.0	21.2

Realized fleet TCE

Benchmark comparison will appear once issuer-printed benchmark data is available.

Guidance & sources

Issuer guidance — forward-looking

No current-quarter guidance on file.

Historical guidance (4 rows)

Period	Metric	Value	Coverage	As of	Source
2026H2	CAPESIZE TC cover (H2 2026)	$30,800	55%	2026-07-30	print
2026H2	NEWCASTLEMAX TC cover (H2 2026)	$30,800	55%	2026-07-30	print
2026Q3	CAPESIZE TCE estimate (whole quarter)	$31,000	71%	2026-07-30	print
2026Q3	NEWCASTLEMAX TCE estimate (whole quarter)	$31,000	71%	2026-07-30	print

Sources — press, filings & documents

Press & filings by quarter

Quarter	Report	Presentation	Dividend	Other
2026Q4	6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2026Q3	6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K	—	—	—
2026Q2	6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	6K, 6K exhibit
2026Q1	20-F, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2025Q4	6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2025Q3	6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2025Q2	6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2025Q1	6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 20-F, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2024Q4	6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2024Q3	6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2024Q2	6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 20-F	—	—	—
2024Q1	6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—