LPG Dorian LPG

Gas Β· VLGC Β· 74 documents

Dorian LPG's 25-vessel gas fleet should earn about $88,984 a day in 2026Q3 and pay between $0.97 and $1.30 a share. That is our forecast (PATTERN payout on MODELLED TCE). All of those vessel-days are already fixed at rates Dorian LPG has disclosed.

Last paid Β· 2026Q2
$1.00
7.5% annualised
$75,926/d earned
TTM $3.35 (6.2% trailing)
2026Q3 Β· our model
$0.97–1.30
7.2–9.7% annualised
$88,984/d modelled
PATTERN payout on MODELLED TCE
medium 99% booked Β· beyond the $75,926/d its dividend history covers Β· payout-history fit
2026Q4 Β· our model
$3.09
23.1% annualised
$221,766/d modelled
payout ratio on modelled earnings Β· beyond the $75,926/d its dividend history covers

Yields annualise each quarter Γ—4 at the last close, $53.60 (2026-10-16). Our model is not company guidance.

What will Dorian LPG pay for 2026Q3?

Company said
Dorian LPG has booked 99% of its 2026Q3 days (2026-09-02, source; by class on the right). It does not say what it will pay β€” turning its rates into a dividend is our job.
$88,000/d
booked average
est. $1.12
on booked days Β· extrap.
Our model
Booked days at those rates, open days at the company's own last realized rate; dividend by payout-history fit. Range $0.97–$1.30.
$88,984/d
modelled
$1.13
medium confidence Β· PATTERN payout on MODELLED TCE
Your scenario
Booked days at the company’s rates, open days at the rate you set. Set the rates ↓
β€”
your rates
β€”
your rates

Booked vs market $/day

ClassBookedAtSpot now
VLGC 99% $88,000 β€”

Rates in, dividend out 2026Q3

Model Your scenario

Set a rate per vessel class and the statement below re-prices: our model’s figures in one column, yours beside them. These are your numbers, not our forecast and not company guidance; nothing you set is saved.

Latest rates

ClassCompany earnedBooked 2026Q3Market now8 weeks
Vlgc Β· 25 $75,9262026Q2 Β· fleet avg $88,00099% of days β€”no open $/day series

Company earned: the issuer’s own reported TCE (linked). Booked: cover the issuer printed for 2026Q3. Market now: the median across the broker route prints we hold for the class β€” a derived blend, not a vendor index; the trend is rebased to 100 eight weeks ago.

Your rates open days only β€” booked days stay at the booked rate

Vlgc 99% booked at $88,000 Β· 23 open days

2026Q3 P&L and cash

LineModelYour scenarioΞ”
Vessel-days, days modelled

Ships on the fleet list Γ— the quarter's calendar days for vlgc: no off-hire or drydock days are deducted there.

 2,300 2,300
By class
ClassDaysModel $/dayYours $/day
Vlgc2,30088,98488,984
Fleet TCE, $/day modelled 88,984 88,984
Revenue (TCE basis), $m modelled

Vessel-days Γ— fleet TCE.

 204.7 204.7
Vessel opex, $m assumed

2026Q2: $20.1m over 2,484 vessel-days, held per day.

 (18.7) (18.7)
G&A, $m assumed

2026Q2: $13.5m over 2,484 vessel-days, held per day.

 (12.5) (12.5)
EBITDA, $m assumed 173.5 173.5
Hire for chartered-in ships, $m

Not on file for any quarter (not extracted, or not disclosed).

 β€” β€”
Interest expense, $m assumed

2026Q2: $8.7m over 2,484 vessel-days, held per day.

 (8.1) (8.1)
Scheduled debt amortisation, $m stated

2026Q2: $25.0m over 2,484 vessel-days, held per day (the issuer’s scheduled principal).

 (23.2) (23.2)
Drydock cost, $m

No separate drydock cash line on file.

 β€” β€”
Cash break-even, $/day assumed

Ξ£ cash costs above Γ· vessel-days.

 27,125 27,125
Cushion vs fleet TCE, $/day 61,859 61,859
Free cash flow to equity, $m assumed

Revenue βˆ’ cash costs: the cash available for distribution.

 142.3 142.3
Maintenance capex, $m

Not disclosed as a cash line; not in the model’s cash.

 β€”

Dividend policy pattern

No stated payout policy on file.

Dividend by payout-history fit; it does not move with the rate, so your scenario leaves it unchanged.

OutputModelYour scenarioΞ”
Estimated DPS, $/share modelled $1.13
Forward yield, run-rate % 8.5%
vs last declared ($1.00, 2026Q2) +13%

Yield annualises the quarter’s DPS Γ— 4 (a run-rate, not a forecast of the year) against the $53.60 close on 2026-10-16.

Our model’s DPS comes from payout-history fit; your scenario reads the payout-history fit, so the two can differ.

Showing the model’s own figures. Setting your own rates needs JavaScript.

Dividend per share declared Β· model Β· you

$0.652025Q3$0.702025Q4$1.002026Q1$1.002026Q2$1.132026Q3$3.092026Q4solid = declared Β· dashed = our model Β· dot = your scenario

Market context β€” rates, the dividend, and the price

Rates and dividend β€” realized rate and declared

Realized fleet TCEModelDeclared DPS
forecast →
$0k
$150k
$300k
2025Q3
2025Q4
2026Q1
2026Q2
2026Q3
2026Q4
Declared DPS, USD/share — solid: declared · dashed: model
$0.65
$0.70
$1.00
$1.00
$1.13
$3.09
2025Q3 pay 2025-12-02

Bars are the fleet TCE this issuer reported. Dashed-outline bars are the model estimate β€” see Dividend forecast.

The line is the declared dividend per share β€” dashed where it is the model's estimate. Model estimate β€” not issuer guidance.

Forward (our model β€” model quarter Γ—4): $4.53/yr Β· @ $53.60 (as of 2026-10-16) = 8.5% yield (forward, model) Β· Trailing TTM $3.35/yr = 6.2%

DPS-vs-TCE fit RΒ² 0.945 Β· 5 qtrs

How we got the number

How to read this page

Every figure here is built the same way: the fleet's vessel-days are priced at the rate its classes earned, costs and debt service come off, and what is left is measured against the dividend the company actually declared. Nothing is estimated where it can be sourced, and a number that cannot be sourced is withheld rather than filled in. The full method, and the rates behind it β†’

Where LPG departs from that

  • No market index covers this fleet's vessel types, so each is priced at the company's own last realized rate per calendar vessel-day (revenue divided by vessel-days), held flat β€” the revenue track record shows how that has done.
  • Vessel-days are modelled from the fleet list (ships Γ— days in the quarter); no issuer day count is curated for this quarter.
  • Vlgc: open days at the full Fearnleys spot rate β€” no closed quarter yet to measure how much of it this issuer captures.
  • Vlgc: using issuer guidance 99% fixed @ $88,000/day.

What drives it β€” fleet TCE, 2026Q3

Expected fleet TCE
$88,984/d
99% STATED Β· 1% MODELLED
Days already fixed
99%
at disclosed rates
How we got to the DPS
Payout-history fit PATTERN payout on MODELLED TCE $1.13
Stated payout policy declined β€” the company publishes no payout policy this model can read

Earnings bridge β€” 2026Q2 β†’ 2026Q3

Anchor DPS (2026Q2) $1.00
Booked cover β€” issuer guidance targets a different quarter than the anchor β€” no same-vintage comparison TBD
Open cover (spot-exposed) β€” VLGC 1% of days without booked cover β€” spot-exposed TBD
Expected DPS (2026Q3) $1.13

Dividend history & forecast accuracy

Fit
5 qtrs Β· RΒ² 0.945

Upcoming

QuarterEx-date (est.)Forecast DPSActual DPS
2026Q3 Eβ€”$1.13β€”
2026Q4 Eβ€”$3.09β€”
PeriodDPSKindEx-datePay dateSource
paid 2026-08-12 $1.00/share regular β€” 2026-08-12 as of 2026-08-12 declaration
paid 2026-05-28 $1.00/share regular β€” 2026-05-28 as of 2026-05-28 declaration
paid 2026-02-24 $0.70/share regular β€” 2026-02-24 as of 2026-02-24 declaration
2025-Q3 $0.65/share regular β€” 2025-12-02 as of 2025-11-06 declaration
2025-Q2 $0.60/share regular β€” 2025-08-27 as of 2025-08-01 declaration
2024-Q4 $0.70/share regular β€” 2025-02-27 as of 2025-01-24 declaration

DPS method: payout-history fit.

Financials & fleet

Latest quarter 2026Q2

Fleet
25
Realized TCE
$75,926/d 2026Q2
Declared DPS
$1.00 2026Q2
TTM DPS
$3.35
Coverage
β€”
Revenue
$187.9M
Opex
$20.1M
Net income
$138.3M

25Γ— vlgc current

Revenue model track record model vs realized

Each quarter priced at the previous quarter's realized rate, held flat β€” the figure the model holds once that quarter is reported β€” against the rate the fleet actually realized. Average miss 18.9% over 4 backtested quarters.

QuarterRecordModel $/dayRealized $/dayModel rev $MRealized rev $MMiss
2025Q2backtest 36,07139,726 85.394.0 -9.2%
2025Q3backtest 39,72653,725 98.7133.5 -26.1%
2025Q4backtest 53,72550,333 133.5125.0 +6.7%
2026Q2backtest 50,33375,926 123.7186.6 -33.7%

Backtest rows apply today's rule to past quarters using only the prior quarters' reported rates; live rows are the forecast as frozen on the date shown. Revenue is rate Γ— vessel-days, so a miss here is a rate miss.

Fleet model β€” 2026Q3

Fleet model estimate β€” not issuer guidance.

ClassShipsTCSpot% FixedGuided $/dSpot $/dBlended $/dQTD rev $MModeled Q rev $M
Vlgc25β€”β€” 99% 88,000 186,448 88,984 β€” 204.7
Total25 88,984 β€” 204.7

Guided rates are issuer-booked cover for 2026Q3 blended with Gibson and route-basket spot medians for the open days.

Expected DPS
$0.97–$1.30/share
Annualized
$3.88–$5.18/yr
Revenue if rates hold
$204.7M
Confidence
MEDIUM

Policy: The company's dividend policy is to declare irregular cash dividends at the discretion of the Board of Directors. These declarations are based on various factors including financial performance, indebtedness, capital requirements, contractual restrictions, leg

Bear uses booked coverage only; Base prices open vessels at the company's own last realized fleet rate β€” no market index covers this fleet, so there is no peak-index Bull case.

Model gaps & assumptions

vlgc: open days at the full Fearnleys spot rate β€” no closed quarter yet to measure how much of it this issuer captures Β· vlgc: using issuer guidance 99% fixed @ $88,000/day Β· vlgc: open days priced at Fearnleys VLGC spot, 2026Q3 β€” mean of the quarter's monthly medians, 2 of 3 months on file (ended quarter; owner 2026-10-20), $186,448/day Β· one-model DPS not used: fewer than 3 quarters of rate and dividend history, no break-even, or it does not explain the company's own dividends (RΒ² < 0.5) Β· DPS-vs-TCE regression (Β§26) DPS extrapolated: TCE $88,984/day is 17% outside the fitted range $36,071-$75,926/day β€” the band widens with the distance

Profit statement highlights

Line2026Q22026Q1YoY Ξ”
Revenue $187.9M $153.3M +123.1%
Opex $20.1M $18.6M -8.1%
Net income $138.3M $81.0M > +500%
Full P&L grid β€” 6 quarters
Line item2026Q22026Q12025Q42025Q32025Q22025Q1
Revenue $M187.9153.3120.0124.184.280.7
Voyage expenses $M0.4β€”1.71.01.31.0
Vessel opex $M20.118.619.920.721.921.4
G&A $M13.513.310.812.016.97.5
Depreciation $Mβ€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”
Interest expense, gross $Mβ€”β€”β€”β€”β€”8.9
Net income $M138.381.047.255.410.121.4
Declared DPS1.001.000.700.650.600.50

Profit statement – highlights SEC EDGAR company facts

Line2013Q32013Q42014Q12014Q22014Q32014Q42015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q12026Q2YoY Ξ”
Revenue 6.113.79.915.920.432.635.335.674.993.385.350.533.635.747.641.034.744.539.027.640.855.134.561.291.685.495.273.254.788.599.663.063.168.679.676.876.0103.3133.6111.6144.7163.1141.4114.482.480.775.984.2124.1120.0153.3187.9 +123.2%
EBITDA / operating income -0.53.91.05.23.510.810.513.648.754.042.112.4-4.2-3.59.2-0.3-3.57.00.7-13.2-0.39.3-3.820.349.341.849.822.55.441.946.313.319.122.637.528.928.157.583.855.680.5110.382.455.519.123.414.715.659.351.383.9142.7 > +500%
Operating expenses β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€” β€”
Net result β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”-6.7β€”β€”β€”-20.6β€”β€”β€”6.1β€”β€”β€”12.2β€”β€”β€”5.9β€”β€”β€”24.820.351.3β€”51.776.5100.0β€”51.39.421.4β€”10.155.447.2β€”138.3 > +500%
Declared DPS β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”1.0β€”1.02.51.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.00.70.50.60.650.71.0 β€”
Full P&L grid β€” 4 lines Γ— 52 quarters
Line itemQ3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Operating revenues6.113.79.915.920.432.635.335.674.993.385.350.533.635.747.641.034.744.539.027.640.855.134.561.291.685.495.273.254.788.599.663.063.168.679.676.876.0103.3133.6111.6144.7163.1141.4114.482.480.775.984.2124.1120.0153.3187.9
Operating expensesβ€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”
Operating income-0.53.91.05.23.510.810.513.648.754.042.112.4-4.2-3.59.2-0.3-3.57.00.7-13.2-0.39.3-3.820.349.341.849.822.55.441.946.313.319.122.637.528.928.157.583.855.680.5110.382.455.519.123.414.715.659.351.383.9142.7
Profit for the periodβ€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”-6.7β€”β€”β€”-20.6β€”β€”β€”6.1β€”β€”β€”12.2β€”β€”β€”5.9β€”β€”β€”24.820.351.3β€”51.776.5100.0β€”51.39.421.4β€”10.155.447.2β€”138.3

Realized fleet TCE

Realized fleet TCE versus benchmark: 5 points, 2025-01-01 to 2026-04-01; Realized fleet TCE latest 75,926.00.

image/svg+xml 2025 Apr Jul Oct 2026 Apr 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 75,926 Realized fleet TCE USD/day

Benchmark comparison will appear once issuer-printed benchmark data is available.

Guidance & sources

Issuer guidance β€” forward-looking

PeriodMetricValueCoverageAs ofSource
2026Q3VLGC fixed calendar days (Q3 estimate, rate is a floor) $88,000 99% 2026-09-02 print
Sources β€” press, filings & documents

Press & filings by quarter

QuarterReportPresentationDividendOther
2026Q3 β€” β€” β€” 8-K, 8-K, 8-K exhibit, 8-K exhibit, 8-K, 10-Q, 8-K exhibit, 8-K exhibit, 8-K, 8-K, 8-K exhibit, 8-K exhibit
2026Q2 β€” β€” β€” 8-K, 8-K exhibit, 8-K exhibit, 10-K, 8-K, 8-K exhibit, 8-K exhibit, 8-K, 8-K exhibit, 8-K, 8-K exhibit, 8-K exhibit
2026Q1 β€” β€” β€” 8-K, 8-K exhibit, 8-K, 10-Q, 8-K exhibit, 8-K exhibit, 8-K, 8-K exhibit, 8-K exhibit
2025Q4 β€” β€” β€” 8-K, 10-Q, 8-K exhibit
2025Q3 β€” β€” β€” 8-K, 10-Q, 8-K, 8-K exhibit
2025Q2 β€” β€” β€” 10-K, 8-K, 8-K exhibit, 8-K exhibit, 8-K, 8-K, 8-K exhibit, 8-K, 8-K exhibit, 8-K exhibit
2025Q1 β€” β€” β€” 10-Q, 8-K, 8-K exhibit, 8-K, 8-K exhibit, 8-K exhibit
2024Q4 β€” β€” β€” 8-K, 10-Q, 8-K
2024Q3 β€” β€” β€” 8-K, 8-K, 10-Q, 8-K, 8-K
2024Q2 β€” β€” β€” FORM 8-K, 10-K, 8-K, 8-K, 8-K, 8-K
2024Q1 β€” β€” β€” 8-K, 10-Q, 8-K, 8-K

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