FRO.OL Frontline
Tankers Crude · VLCC / Suezmax / LR2 · 139 documents · via NYSE line FRO
Frontline's 79-vessel crude tanker fleet — 42 VLCC, 19 Suezmax and 18 Aframax — should earn about $127,305 a day in 2026Q3 and pay $2.23 a share. That is our forecast (PATTERN payout on MODELLED TCE). 83% of those vessel-days are already fixed at rates Frontline has disclosed; the rest are priced at 82% of the index, the share it has historically captured.
Yields annualise each quarter ×4 at the last close, $52.08 (2026-10-19). Our model is not company guidance.
What will Frontline pay for 2026Q3?
Stated policy: “Frontline's dividend policy is to distribute a significant portion of earnings to shareholders”
Booked vs market $/day
| Class | Booked | At | Spot now |
|---|---|---|---|
| LR2/Aframax | 70% | $81,000 | $282,502 |
| Suezmax | 79% | $117,400 | $540,621 |
| VLCC | — | $110,000 | $720,196 |
| VLCC | — | $120,000 | $720,196 |
| VLCC | — | $93,500 | $720,196 |
| VLCC | — | $76,900 | $720,196 |
| VLCC | 86% | $156,900 | $720,196 |
Track record forecast vs paid
| Quarter | Forecast | Paid | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $1.25 | $2.61 | -52% |
| 2026Q1 | $1.25 | $1.55 | -20% |
At 2026Q2’s actual $138,721/d, our model gives $2.47 against $2.61 declared (6 quarters, out-of-sample R² 0.978). Big misses came from forecasting the rate, not the payout.
Rates in, dividend out 2026Q3
Model Your scenarioSet a rate per vessel class and the statement below re-prices: our model’s figures in one column, yours beside them. These are your numbers, not our forecast and not company guidance; nothing you set is saved.
Latest rates
| Class | Company earned | Booked 2026Q3 | Market now | 8 weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC · 42 | $138,7212026Q2 · fleet avg | $133,31090% of days | $720,1962026-10 median · 4 routes | +264% |
| Suezmax · 19 | $138,7212026Q2 · fleet avg | $117,40079% of days | $540,6212026-10 median · 4 routes | +222% |
| LR2 · 18 | $138,7212026Q2 · fleet avg | $81,00070% of days | $282,5022026-10 median · 2 routes | +132% |
Company earned: the issuer’s own reported TCE (linked). Booked: cover the issuer printed for 2026Q3. Market now: the median across the broker route prints we hold for the class — a derived blend, not a vendor index; the trend is rebased to 100 eight weeks ago.
Your rates open days only — booked days stay at the booked rate
2026Q3 P&L and cash
| Line | Model | Your scenario | Δ | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vessel-days, days modelledShips on the fleet list × the quarter's calendar days for LR2, Suezmax, VLCC: no off-hire or drydock days are deducted there. |
6,808 | 6,808 | |||||||||||||||||
By class
| |||||||||||||||||||
| Fleet TCE, $/day modelled | 127,305 | 127,305 | |||||||||||||||||
Revenue (TCE basis), $m modelledVessel-days × fleet TCE. |
866.7 | 866.7 | |||||||||||||||||
Vessel opex, $m assumed2026Q2: $57.4m over 6,716 vessel-days, held per day. Disclosed; the break-even below is the issuer’s own. Source (2026Q2) |
(58.2) | ||||||||||||||||||
G&A, $m assumed2026Q2: $12.5m over 6,716 vessel-days, held per day. Disclosed; the break-even below is the issuer’s own. Source (2026Q2) |
(12.7) | ||||||||||||||||||
EBITDA, $m assumedDisclosed; the break-even below is the issuer’s own. |
795.8 | ||||||||||||||||||
Hire for chartered-in ships, $mNot on file for any quarter (not extracted, or not disclosed). |
— | ||||||||||||||||||
Interest expense, $m assumed2026Q2: $30.5m over 6,716 vessel-days, held per day. Disclosed; the break-even below is the issuer’s own. Source (2026Q2) |
(30.9) | ||||||||||||||||||
Scheduled debt amortisation, $m stated2026Q4: $61.6m over 6,992 vessel-days, held per day (the issuer’s scheduled principal). Disclosed; the break-even below is the issuer’s own. |
(60.0) | ||||||||||||||||||
Drydock cost, $mNo separate drydock cash line on file. |
— | — | |||||||||||||||||
Cash costs at break-even, $m statedThe issuer’s own per-class figures, weighted by vessel-days. |
(162.7) | (162.7) | |||||||||||||||||
Cash break-even, $/day statedThe issuer’s own per-class figures, weighted by vessel-days. |
23,899 | 23,899 | |||||||||||||||||
| Cushion vs fleet TCE, $/day | 103,406 | 103,406 | |||||||||||||||||
Free cash flow to equity, $m modelledRevenue − cash costs: the cash available for distribution. |
704.0 | 704.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Maintenance capex, $mNot disclosed as a cash line; not in the model’s cash. |
— | ||||||||||||||||||
Dividend policy pattern
“Frontline's dividend policy is to distribute a significant portion of earnings to shareholders”
The stated policy is not a percentage the model can apply. It paid 70% of the cash above break-even over 2025Q1–2026Q2 (6 quarters); that share is applied to the cash line.
| Output | Model | Your scenario | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated distributable cash, $m | 494.4 | ||
| Estimated DPS, $/share modelled | $2.23 | ||
| Forward yield, run-rate % | 17.1% | ||
| vs last declared ($2.61, 2026Q2) | -15% |
Yield annualises the quarter’s DPS × 4 (a run-rate, not a forecast of the year) against the $52.08 close on 2026-10-19.
Showing the model’s own figures. Setting your own rates needs JavaScript.
Dividend per share declared · model · you
Market context — rates, the dividend, and the price
Rates and dividend — benchmark, realized and declared
A settled quarter carries two bars: the lighter one is the fleet-weighted benchmark — what the market paid for a fleet of this class mix — and the solid one is what this fleet actually earned. The gap between them is the share of the index this issuer captured. Dashed-outline bars are the model estimate — see Dividend forecast.
The line is the declared dividend per share — dashed where it is the model's estimate. The shaded band is how wrong this model has actually been over its 2 scored quarters — the observed spread, not a symmetric guess around it, with a tick per observation so its width can be counted. Those quarters came in 52% and 20% below what was paid. Model estimate — not issuer guidance.
Forward (our model — model quarter ×4): $8.91/yr · @ $52.08 (as of 2026-10-19) = 17.1% yield (spot-exposure scenario) · Trailing TTM $5.38/yr = 10.3%
Fleet rate — what the market pays a fleet like this one
Fleet-weighted market rate with the class benchmarks behind it: 91 points, 2025-01-03 to 2026-10-16; FRO.OL fleet-weighted latest 573,855.00; VLCC benchmark latest 711,081.00; SUEZMAX benchmark latest 540,621.00; AFRAMAX benchmark latest 288,740.50.
Latest $573,855/day at 2026-10-16 (-4.8% on the prior print), weighted 42×VLCC · 19×SUEZMAX · 18×AFRAMAX.
The thick line prices this fleet's own class mix at the market's rate each week; the pale lines are the class benchmarks behind it. Each class benchmark is a median across every route mapped to that class, not a single assessment. A laden-leg benchmark runs hotter than a fleet earns — ballast days, waiting time, TC-out legs and off-hire all dilute it — so this is market direction, not revenue. What this fleet actually captured is the panel above.
Price and the yield it implied
Latest: 2026-Q2 declared $2.61/share on 2026-08-28, 23.6% annualised against the $44.19 close that day.
The continuous line is the daily closing price in dollars — the raw close, not a dividend-adjusted one, which would back-adjust away the very payouts being measured. The second line carries 4 declared dividends and is marked nowhere else — each annualised ×4 and divided by the close on, or last before, the day it was declared. A quarter with no dividend has no mark. The segments between the marks connect them; they are not measured. This is what the share yielded at the time, not what those dividends would yield at today's price. Prices start 2025-08-29, so anything declared before then is not plotted.
How we got the number
How to read this page
Every figure here is built the same way: the fleet's vessel-days are priced at the rate its classes earned, costs and debt service come off, and what is left is measured against the dividend the company actually declared. Nothing is estimated where it can be sourced, and a number that cannot be sourced is withheld rather than filled in. The full method, and the rates behind it →
Where FRO.OL departs from that
- Vessel-days are modelled from the fleet list (ships × days in the quarter); no issuer day count is curated for this quarter.
- VLCC: index realized at 82% — this issuer captured 82% of the index across 5 closed quarters (range 72%-134%; 5 on its printed spot TCE); the open share is priced at that fraction, not at the index.
- VLCC: using issuer guidance 90% fixed @ $133,310/day — day-weighted across its charters: VLCC one-year time charters (seven, January 2026) $76,900/day x 644 days; VLCC one-year time charter (February 2026) $93,500/day x 92 days; VLCC newbuilding time charters (April/May 2026) $110,000/day x 184 days; VLCC newbuilding time charters (June/July 2026) $120,000/day x 182 days; spot days booked $156,900/day x 1980 days.
What drives it — fleet TCE, 2026Q3
Earnings bridge — 2026Q2 → 2026Q3
Dividend history & forecast accuracy
Upcoming
| Quarter | Ex-date (est.) | Forecast DPS | Actual DPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 E | 2026-12-11 est. | $2.23 | — |
| 2026Q4 E | 2027-03-11 est. | $9.80 | — |
| Quarter | Ex-date | Forecast DPS | Actual DPS | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | 2026-09-17 | $1.25 | $2.61 | -52.1% |
| 2026Q1 | 2026-06-11 | $1.25 | $1.55 | -19.5% |
DPS method: payout of cash above break-even.
Financials & fleet
Latest quarter 2026Q2 2 qtrs old
18× aframax · 19× suezmax · 42× vlcc 2026Q3
Fleet model — 2026Q3
Fleet model estimate — not issuer guidance.
| Class | Ships | TC | Spot | % Fixed | Guided $/d | Spot $/d | Blended $/d | QTD rev $M | Modeled Q rev $M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC | 42 | 5 | 37 | 90% | 133,310 | 298,164 | 143,898 | — | 489.8 |
| Suezmax | 19 | 1 | 18 | 79% | 117,400 | 185,993 | 124,809 | — | 218.2 |
| LR2 | 18 | 1 | 17 | 70% | 81,000 | 158,894 | 95,831 | — | 158.7 |
| Total | 79 | 127,305 | — | 866.7 | |||||
Guided rates are issuer-booked cover for 2026Q3 blended with Gibson and route-basket spot medians for the open days.
TC = vessels on TC-out with initial period >12 mo at 2026Q2 quarter-end; shorter charters read as spot.
Bear uses booked coverage only; Base adds open vessels at this issuer's realized share of the latest Gibson median; Bull reruns them at the same share of the recent 3-month peak index.
No retained-cash floor disclosed; full quarter cash earnings above break-even treated as distributable.
Model gaps & assumptions
vlcc: index realized at 82% — this issuer captured 82% of the index across 5 closed quarters (range 72%-134%; 5 on its printed spot TCE); the open share is priced at that fraction, not at the index · vlcc: using issuer guidance 90% fixed @ $133,310/day — day-weighted across its charters: VLCC one-year time charters (seven, January 2026) $76,900/day x 644 days; VLCC one-year time charter (February 2026) $93,500/day x 92 days; VLCC newbuilding time charters (April/May 2026) $110,000/day x 184 days; VLCC newbuilding time charters (June/July 2026) $120,000/day x 182 days; spot days booked $156,900/day x 1980 days · suezmax: index realized at 82% — this issuer captured 82% of the index across 5 closed quarters (range 72%-134%; 5 on its printed spot TCE); the open share is priced at that fraction, not at the index · suezmax: using issuer guidance 79% fixed @ $117,400/day · lr2: index realized at 82% — this issuer captured 82% of the index across 5 closed quarters (range 72%-134%; 5 on its printed spot TCE); the open share is priced at that fraction, not at the index · lr2: using issuer guidance 70% fixed @ $81,000/day · lr2: 2026Q3 has ended — open days are priced at the mean of its own monthly medians, $158,894/day, not the newest month (owner 2026-10-19) · suezmax: 2026Q3 has ended — open days are priced at the mean of its own monthly medians, $185,993/day, not the newest month (owner 2026-10-19) · vlcc: 2026Q3 has ended — open days are priced at the mean of its own monthly medians, $298,164/day, not the newest month (owner 2026-10-19) · estimate base 2025Q2 predates 2026Q2, the quarter before the 2026Q3 forecast · break-even: the issuer's own per-class cash break-evens (vlcc $23,800/d, suezmax $25,700/d, lr2 $22,200/d, 2026Q2), weighted by vessel-days: $23,899/d (its cost lines give $23,755/d) · DPS = 70% (own history) of cash above the $23,899/day break-even (issuer printed) over 6,808 vessel-days
Forecast accuracy — fleet TCE
The model's fleet TCE for each quarter — the fleet-mix-weighted Gibson class benchmark, one quantity per fleet, never a shared class rate — scored against the TCE the company went on to report. Error is model minus reported, as a share of reported — positive means the model was too high.
| Quarter | Model TCE | Reported TCE | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | $96,421/day | $138,721/day | -30.5% |
| 2026Q1 | $112,940/day | $96,786/day | +16.7% |
| 2025Q4 | $77,296/day | $67,279/day | +14.9% |
| 2025Q3 | $44,752/day | $34,571/day | +29.4% |
| 2025Q2 | $39,299/day | $41,675/day | -5.7% |
| 2025Q1 | $34,893/day | $35,164/day | -0.8% |
The realization anchor is not shown beside the model here. The DPS track is scored at the earliest week it becomes computable and the benchmark row records only one timestamp for the quarter, so the anchor's week is not recoverable — on FRO 2026Q2 the model is locked in April and the anchor at 30 June. Printing the two side by side would present figures of different vintage as a comparison, which is not a measurement. The TCE track scores the fleet-mix-weighted class benchmark described above against the reported quarter.
Profit statement highlights
| Line | 2026Q2 | 2026Q1 | YoY Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $943.3M | $714.2M | +96.5% |
| Opex | $57.4M | $61.7M | -4.0% |
| Net income | $659.2M | $559.1M | > +500% |
Full P&L grid — 6 quarters
| Line item | 2026Q2 | 2026Q1 | 2025Q4 | 2025Q3 | 2025Q2 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue $M | 943.3 | 714.2 | 624.5 | 432.7 | 480.1 | 427.9 |
| Voyage expenses $M | 205.9 | 180.6 | 197.6 | 181.6 | 194.6 | 180.0 |
| Vessel opex $M | 57.4 | 61.7 | 55.8 | 62.9 | 59.8 | 60.3 |
| G&A $M | 12.5 | 25.9 | 11.2 | 15.3 | 11.5 | 13.3 |
| Depreciation $M | 71.3 | 76.0 | 82.2 | 82.8 | 82.2 | 81.3 |
| Interest expense, gross $M | — | — | — | — | — | 58.3 |
| Net income $M | 659.2 | 559.1 | 227.9 | 40.3 | 77.5 | 33.3 |
| Declared DPS | 2.61 | 1.55 | 1.03 | 0.19 | 0.36 | 0.18 |
Cash break-even & opex per fleet
| Vessel class | Opex/day | Cash break-even $/day |
|---|---|---|
| vlcc | $9,200 | $23,800 |
| suezmax | $9,000 | $25,700 |
| aframax | $13,300 | $22,200 |
Fleet exposure
Latest voyage fixture per vessel — spot cover with firm status reads as covered through the fixture end; time-charter-out cover is not in the fixtures feed.
| Vessel | Class | Fix | Rate | Covered through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Maqam | VLCC | Fixed Petco | $98,858/day | 2026-08-05 |
| Front Beaver | VLCC | Fixed Petrobras | $102,906/day | 2026-10-28 |
| Front Defender | VLCC | Fixed Petrobras | — | 2026-09-01 |
| Front Discovery | VLCC | Fixed Bahri Oil Transportation | $196,509/day | 2026-08-11 |
| Front Driva | VLCC | Fixed Petrobras | $149,852/day | 2026-10-05 |
| Front Dynamic | VLCC | Fixed Vitol | $113,886/day | 2026-08-05 |
| Front Eagle | VLCC | On Subs Petrobras | $192,644/day | 2026-11-13 |
| Front Gander | VLCC | Fixed Petrobras | $103,888/day | 2026-11-18 |
| Front Gaula | VLCC | Fixed Petrobras | $145,179/day | 2026-06-28 |
| Front Maine | VLCC | On Subs CNR | $238,324/day | 2026-09-28 |
| Front Morgan | VLCC | Fixed CSSA | $92,516/day | 2026-06-08 |
| Front Naver | VLCC | On Subs Petrobras | — | 2026-11-05 |
| Front Rauma | VLCC | Fixed Clearlake | $138,834/day | 2026-09-02 |
| Front Tana | VLCC | Fixed Bahri Oil Transportation | $158,333/day | 2026-07-31 |
| Front Tweed | VLCC | Fixed Occidental | $132,847/day | 2026-08-13 |
| Front Tyne | VLCC | Failed Vitol | $152,685/day | — |
| Front Vefsna | VLCC | Failed Hyundai Oilbank | — | — |
| TBN | VLCC | Fixed Unipec (Lon) | $83,522/day | 2026-09-04 |
Voyage tape — FRO.OL
Guidance & sources
Issuer guidance — forward-looking
| Period | Metric | Value | Coverage | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | VLCC newbuilding time charters (June/July 2026, full quarters) | $120,000 | — | 2026-08-28 | |
| 2026Q4 | VLCC three-year time charter (2016-built, from August 2026) | $75,000 | — | 2026-08-28 | |
| 2026Q4 | VLCC two-year time charter (2016-built, from August 2026) | $90,000 | — | 2026-08-28 |
Historical guidance (28 rows)
| Period | Metric | Value | Coverage | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | LR2 spot TCE (booked) | $50,100 | 65% | 2024-08-30 | |
| 2024Q3 | SUEZMAX spot TCE (booked) | $41,900 | 85% | 2024-08-30 | |
| 2024Q3 | VLCC spot TCE (booked) | $47,400 | 79% | 2024-08-30 | |
| 2024Q4 | LR2 spot TCE (booked) | $34,800 | 60% | 2024-11-27 | |
| 2024Q4 | SUEZMAX spot TCE (booked) | $39,600 | 70% | 2024-11-27 | |
| 2024Q4 | VLCC spot TCE (booked) | $44,300 | 77% | 2024-11-27 | |
| 2025Q2 | LR2 spot TCE (booked) | $36,100 | 66% | 2025-05-23 | |
| 2025Q2 | SUEZMAX spot TCE (booked) | $44,900 | 69% | 2025-05-23 | |
| 2025Q2 | VLCC spot TCE (booked) | $56,400 | 68% | 2025-05-23 | |
| 2025Q3 | LR2/AFRAMAX spot TCE (booked) | $36,600 | 73% | 2025-08-28 | |
| 2025Q3 | SUEZMAX spot TCE (booked) | $37,200 | 76% | 2025-08-28 | |
| 2025Q3 | VLCC spot TCE (booked) | $38,700 | 82% | 2025-08-28 | |
| 2025Q4 | LR2 spot TCE (booked) | $42,200 | 51% | 2025-11-21 | |
| 2025Q4 | SUEZMAX spot TCE (booked) | $60,600 | 75% | 2025-11-21 | |
| 2025Q4 | VLCC spot TCE (booked) | $83,300 | 75% | 2025-11-21 | |
| 2026Q1 | LR2 spot TCE (booked) | $62,400 | 67% | 2026-02-27 | |
| 2026Q1 | SUEZMAX spot TCE (booked) | $76,700 | 83% | 2026-02-27 | |
| 2026Q1 | VLCC spot TCE (booked) | $107,100 | 92% | 2026-02-27 | |
| 2026Q2 | LR2/Aframax spot TCE (booked) | $125,000 | 68% | 2026-05-22 | |
| 2026Q2 | Suezmax spot TCE (booked) | $131,300 | 79% | 2026-05-22 | |
| 2026Q2 | VLCC spot TCE (booked) | $181,700 | 82% | 2026-05-22 | |
| 2026Q3 | LR2/Aframax spot TCE (booked) | $81,000 | 70.0% | 2026-08-28 | |
| 2026Q3 | Suezmax spot TCE (booked) | $117,400 | 79.0% | 2026-08-28 | |
| 2026Q3 | VLCC newbuilding time charters (April/May 2026) | $110,000 | — | 2026-05-22 | |
| 2026Q3 | VLCC newbuilding time charters (June/July 2026) | $120,000 | — | 2026-08-28 | |
| 2026Q3 | VLCC one-year time charter (February 2026) | $93,500 | — | 2026-03-27 | — |
| 2026Q3 | VLCC one-year time charters (seven, January 2026) | $76,900 | — | 2026-03-27 | — |
| 2026Q3 | VLCC spot TCE (booked) | $156,900 | 86.0% | 2026-08-28 |
Sources — press, filings & documents
Interim updates since 2026Q3
- other low 2026-10-15T20:30:00Z Frontline plc (the "Company") advises that the 2026 Annual General Meeting of the Company will be held on December 7, 2026. The record date … source
Market: LR2 FFA curve $47,500/day, Suezmax FFA curve $379,500/day, VLCC FFA curve $1,257,500/day
Press & filings by quarter
Recent documents
- mfn 2026-10-15T22:30:00 FRO – 2026 Annual General Meeting (2026-10-15)
- newsweb 2026-10-15T20:30:00Z FRO - 2026 Annual General Meeting (2026-10-15)
- mfn 2026-09-17T08:00:00 FRO - Ex dividend USD 3.41 today (2026-09-17)
- newsweb 2026-09-17T06:00:00Z FRO - Ex dividend USD 3.41 today (2026-09-17)
- mfn 2026-09-16T22:10:34 FRO – Filing of Half Yearly Report (2026-09-16)
- newsweb 2026-09-16T20:10:22Z FRO - Filing of Half Yearly Report (2026-09-16)
- edgar 2026-09-16 6-K — Current Report (2026-09-16)
- mfn 2026-09-11T22:35:00 FRO: Key information relating to the special one-time dividend after sale of two VLLCs to be paid by Frontline plc (2026-09-11)
- mfn 2026-09-11T22:30:00 FRO – Declares special one-time dividend after sale of two VLLCs (2026-09-11)
- newsweb 2026-09-11T20:35:00Z Key information relating to the special one-time dividend after sale of two VLLCs to be paid by Frontline plc (2026-09-11)
- newsweb 2026-09-11T20:30:02Z FRO - Declares special one-time dividend after sale of two VLLCs (2026-09-11)
- mfn 2026-09-01T22:30:00 FRO - Notification of Trade (2026-09-01)