ASC Ardmore Shipping

Tankers Product · MR · 51 documents

Ardmore Shipping's 24-vessel product tanker fleet — 18 MR and 6 Chemical — should earn about $28,827 a day in 2026Q3 and pay $0.46 a share. That is our forecast (STATED payout on MODELLED TCE). 46% of those vessel-days are already fixed at rates Ardmore Shipping has disclosed; the rest are priced at 87% of the index, the share it has historically captured.

Last paid · 2026Q2

$0.79

16.7% annualised

$38,073/d earned

TTM $1.37 (7.2% trailing) · +103% vs prior quarter

2026Q3 · our model

$0.46

9.7% annualised

$28,827/d modelled

STATED payout on MODELLED TCE

low EPS $0.69 · 46% booked

2026Q4 · our model

$0.69

14.5% annualised

$35,124/d modelled

EPS $1.03

Yields annualise each quarter ×4 at the last close, $18.93 (2026-10-16). Our model is not company guidance.

What will Ardmore Shipping pay for 2026Q3?

Company said

Ardmore Shipping has booked 46% of its 2026Q3 days (2026-07-29; by class on the right). It does not say what it will pay — turning its rates into a dividend is our job.
Stated policy: “We are doubling our dividend payout ratio on our shares of common stock to two-thirds (increased from one-third) of Adjusted earnings.”

$28,357/d

booked average

est. $0.44

on booked days

Our model

Booked days at those rates, open days at 87% of spot; then Ardmore Shipping pays out 67% of the cash above its $16,141/d break-even (stated policy, 6 quarters; break-even from cost lines). Track record ↓

$28,827/d

modelled

$0.46

low confidence · STATED payout on MODELLED TCE

Your scenario

Booked days at the company’s rates, open days at the rate you set. Set the rates ↓

—

your rates

—

your rates

Booked vs market $/day

Class	Booked	At	Spot now
Chemical	50%	$25,000	—
MR	45%	$29,600	$68,317

Track record forecast vs paid

Quarter	Forecast	Paid	Miss
2026Q2	$0.10	$0.79	-87%
2026Q1	$0.09	$0.39	-77%
2025Q4	$0.05	$0.09	-42%

At 2026Q2’s actual $38,073/d, our model gives $0.79 against $0.79 declared (6 quarters, out-of-sample R² 0.912). Big misses came from forecasting the rate, not the payout.

Rates in, dividend out 2026Q3

Model Your scenario

Set a rate per vessel class and the statement below re-prices: our model’s figures in one column, yours beside them. These are your numbers, not our forecast and not company guidance; nothing you set is saved.

Latest rates

Class	Company earned	Booked 2026Q3	Market now	8 weeks
MR · 18	$51,8702026Q2 · class	$29,60045% of days	$68,3172026-10 median · 2 routes	+136%
Chemical · 6	$26,8872026Q2 · class	$25,00050% of days	—no open $/day series

Company earned: the issuer’s own reported TCE (linked). Booked: cover the issuer printed for 2026Q3. Market now: the median across the broker route prints we hold for the class — a derived blend, not a vendor index; the trend is rebased to 100 eight weeks ago.

Your rates open days only — booked days stay at the booked rate

MR 45% booked at $29,600 · 911 open days

$/d

Chemical 50% booked at $25,000 · 276 open days

$/d

2026Q3 P&L and cash

Model

Your scenario

Vessel-days, days modelled

Ships on the fleet list × the quarter's calendar days for chemical, MR: no off-hire or drydock days are deducted there.

2,208

By class

Class	Days	Model $/day	Yours $/day
MR	1,656	29,788	29,788
Chemical	552	25,944	25,944

Fleet TCE, $/day modelled

28,827

Revenue (TCE basis), $m modelled

Vessel-days × fleet TCE.

63.6

Vessel opex, $m assumed

2026Q2: $19.0m over 2,208 vessel-days, held per day.

(19.0)

G&A, $m assumed

2026Q2: $5.8m over 2,208 vessel-days, held per day.

(5.8)

EBITDA, $m assumed

38.9

Hire for chartered-in ships, $m

Not on file for any quarter (not extracted, or not disclosed).

—

Interest expense, $m assumed

2026Q2: $1.7m over 2,208 vessel-days, held per day.

(1.7)

Scheduled debt amortisation, $m

As reported for 2026Q2. Not deducted: the stated policy pays out of net income.

0.0

Depreciation, $m assumed

2026Q2: $9.1m over 2,208 vessel-days, held per day.

(9.1)

Drydock cost, $m

No separate drydock cash line on file.

—

Cash break-even, $/day assumed

Σ the costs the stated policy deducts above ÷ vessel-days.

16,141

Cushion vs fleet TCE, $/day

12,686

Net income, $m assumed

Revenue − the costs the stated policy deducts: the base it pays out of (net income).

28.0

Maintenance capex, $m

Not disclosed as a cash line; not in the model’s cash.

—

Dividend policy stated

“We are doubling our dividend payout ratio on our shares of common stock to two-thirds (increased from one-third) of Adjusted earnings.”

Applied as stated: 67% of net income.

Output	Model	Your scenario	Δ
Estimated distributable cash, $m	18.7
Estimated DPS, $/share modelled	$0.46
Forward yield, run-rate %	9.7%
vs last declared ($0.79, 2026Q2)	-42%

Yield annualises the quarter’s DPS × 4 (a run-rate, not a forecast of the year) against the $18.93 close on 2026-10-16.

Showing the model’s own figures. Setting your own rates needs JavaScript.

Dividend per share declared · model · you

Market context — rates, the dividend, and the price

Rates and dividend — realized rate and declared

Realized fleet TCEModelDeclared DPS

forecast →

$0k

$20k

$40k

2025Q3

2025Q4

2026Q1

2026Q2

2026Q3

2026Q4

Declared DPS, USD/share — solid: declared · dashed: model · shaded: the range this model has been wrong by

$0.10

$0.09

$0.39

$0.79

$0.46

$0.69

2025Q4 rec 2026-02-27 · pay 2026-03-13 2026Q1 rec 2026-05-29 · pay 2026-06-12

Bars are the fleet TCE this issuer reported. Dashed-outline bars are the model estimate — see Dividend forecast.

The line is the declared dividend per share — dashed where it is the model's estimate. The shaded band is how wrong this model has actually been over its 3 scored quarters — the observed spread, not a symmetric guess around it, with a tick per observation so its width can be counted. Those quarters came in 42%, 87% and 77% below what was paid. It reaches $1.43 per share, past the top of this chart. Model estimate — not issuer guidance.

Forward (our model — model quarter ×4): $1.83/yr · @ $18.93 (as of 2026-10-16) = 9.7% yield (spot-exposure scenario) · Trailing TTM $1.37/yr = 7.2%

DPS-vs-TCE fit R² 0.996 · 6 qtrs

Fit crosses zero at $18,679/d — the TCE below which this fit implies no payout

forecast accuracy →

Price and the yield it implied

Latest: 2026-Q2 declared $0.79/share on 2026-07-29, 18.9% annualised against the $16.75 close that day.

The continuous line is the daily closing price in dollars — the raw close, not a dividend-adjusted one, which would back-adjust away the very payouts being measured. The second line carries 4 declared dividends and is marked nowhere else — each annualised ×4 and divided by the close on, or last before, the day it was declared. A quarter with no dividend has no mark. The segments between the marks connect them; they are not measured. This is what the share yielded at the time, not what those dividends would yield at today's price. Prices start 2025-08-29, so anything declared before then is not plotted.

How we got the number

How to read this page

Every figure here is built the same way: the fleet's vessel-days are priced at the rate its classes earned, costs and debt service come off, and what is left is measured against the dividend the company actually declared. Nothing is estimated where it can be sourced, and a number that cannot be sourced is withheld rather than filled in. The full method, and the rates behind it →

Where ASC departs from that

Vessel-days are modelled from the fleet list (ships × days in the quarter); no issuer day count is curated for this quarter.
MR: index realized at 87% — this issuer captured 87% of the index across 5 closed quarters (range 82%-110%; 5 on its fleet TCE, with no time-charter days on file to remove); the open share is priced at that fraction, not at the index.
MR: using issuer guidance 45% fixed @ $29,600/day.

What drives it — fleet TCE, 2026Q3

Expected fleet TCE

$28,827/d

59% STATED · 41% MODELLED

Days already fixed

46%

at disclosed rates

Index capture on open days

87%

historically captured

Earnings bridge — 2026Q2 → 2026Q3

Anchor DPS (2026Q2) $0.79

TCE rate change — fleet TCE $28,827 expected vs $38,073 at anchor (model rate sensitivity) −$0.37

Open cover (spot-exposed) — MR 55% of days without booked cover · Chemical 50% of days without booked cover — spot-exposed TBD

Expected DPS (2026Q3) $0.46

Dividend history & forecast accuracy

Hit rate

Avg error

68.5%

Quarters tracked

Fit crosses zero

$18,679/day

Fit

6 qtrs · R² 0.996

Upcoming

Quarter	Ex-date (est.)	Forecast DPS	Actual DPS
2026Q3 E	—	$0.46	—
2026Q4 E	—	$0.69	—

Quarter	Ex-date	Forecast DPS	Actual DPS	Error
2026Q2	—	$0.10	$0.79	-87.2%
2026Q1	—	$0.09	$0.39	-76.7%
2025Q4	—	$0.05	$0.09	-41.7%

DPS method: payout of cash above break-even.

Financials & fleet

Latest quarter 2026Q2

Fleet

Realized TCE

$38,073/d 2026Q2

Declared DPS

$0.79 2026Q2

TTM DPS

$1.37

Coverage

1.5×

Revenue

$116.2M

Opex

$19.0M

Net income

$60.5M

6× chemical · 18× mr current

Fleet model — 2026Q3

Fleet model estimate — not issuer guidance.

Class	Ships	TC	Spot	% Fixed	Guided $/d	Spot $/d	Blended $/d	QTD rev $M	Modeled Q rev $M
MR	18	—	—	45%	29,600	34,223	29,788	—	49.3
Chemical	6	—	—	50%	25,000	—	25,944	—	14.3
Total	24						28,827	—	63.6

Guided rates are issuer-booked cover for 2026Q3 blended with Gibson and route-basket spot medians and the company's own guidance for the open days.

Bear — booked only

$29.0M rev

DPS $0.00

Base — index

$63.6M rev

DPS $0.46

Bull — recent peak

$92.2M rev

DPS $1.43

Expected DPS

$0.46/share

Annualized

$1.83/yr

Revenue if rates hold

$63.6M

Confidence

LOW 68.5% err

Bear uses booked coverage only; Base adds open vessels at this issuer's realized share of the latest Gibson median; Bull reruns them at the same share of the recent 3-month peak index.

Model gaps & assumptions

mr: index realized at 87% — this issuer captured 87% of the index across 5 closed quarters (range 82%-110%; 5 on its fleet TCE, with no time-charter days on file to remove); the open share is priced at that fraction, not at the index · mr: using issuer guidance 45% fixed @ $29,600/day · chemical: issuer guidance 50% covered @ $25,000/day; the open 50% at the issuer's own last realized rate $26,887/day (2026Q2) — no market index for this class (owner rulings 2026-09-08 / 2026-09-26) · mr: 2026Q3 has ended — open days are priced at the mean of its own monthly medians, $34,223/day, not the newest month (owner 2026-10-19) · DPS = 67% (stated policy) of net income: the fleet's earnings above $16,141/day over 2,208 vessel-days

Forecast accuracy — fleet TCE

The model's fleet TCE for each quarter — the fleet-mix-weighted Gibson class benchmark, one quantity per fleet, never a shared class rate — scored against the TCE the company went on to report. Error is model minus reported, as a share of reported — positive means the model was too high.

Quarters scored

Avg abs. error

14.4%

Quarter	Model TCE	Reported TCE	Error
2026Q2	$43,519/day	$38,073/day	+14.3%
2026Q1	$34,978/day	$28,686/day	+21.9%
2025Q4	$28,441/day	$23,524/day	+20.9%
2025Q3	$25,205/day	$23,475/day	+7.4%
2025Q2	$20,410/day	$22,468/day	-9.2%
2025Q1	$17,885/day	$20,542/day	-12.9%

Profit statement highlights

Line	2026Q2	2026Q1	YoY Δ
Revenue	$116.2M	$87.9M	+61.4%
Opex	$19.0M	$17.8M	+23.4%
Net income	$60.5M	$23.6M	> +500%

Full P&L grid — 6 quarters

Line item	2026Q2	2026Q1	2025Q4	2025Q3	2025Q2	2025Q1
Revenue $M	116.2	87.9	82.9	81.2	72.0	74.0
Voyage expenses $M	29.8	25.9	29.7	28.5	25.2	31.0
Vessel opex $M	19.0	17.8	19.1	16.4	15.4	15.2
G&A $M	5.8	6.4	6.5	6.4	6.1	6.2
Depreciation $M	9.1	9.4	9.5	8.8	7.9	7.7
Interest expense, gross $M	—	2.1	—	1.7	1.0	0.9
Net income $M	60.5	23.6	12.4	12.8	9.6	6.3
Declared DPS	0.79	0.39	0.09	0.10	0.07	0.05

Profit statement – highlights SEC EDGAR company facts

Line	FY2011	FY2012	FY2013	H1 2014	2014Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2014	2014Q2	2014Q3	2015Q1	H1 2015	2015Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2015	2015Q2	2015Q3	2016Q1	H1 2016	2016Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2016	2016Q2	2016Q3	2017Q1	H1 2017	2017Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2017	2017Q2	2017Q3	2018Q1	H1 2018	2018Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2018	2018Q2	2018Q3	2019Q1	H1 2019	2019Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2019	2019Q2	2019Q3	2020Q1	H1 2020	2020Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2020	2020Q2	2020Q3	2021Q1	H1 2021	2021Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2021	2021Q2	2021Q3	2022Q1	H1 2022	2022Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2022	2022Q2	2022Q3	2023Q1	H1 2023	2023Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2023	2023Q2	2023Q3	2024Q1	H1 2024	2024Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2024	2024Q2	2024Q3	2025Q1	H1 2025	2025Q4 (FY − 9M)	FY2025	2025Q2	2025Q3	2026Q1	YoY Δ
Revenue	22.4	25.2	35.9	26.2	22.2	67.3	13.8	18.9	29.6	68.9	41.8	157.9	39.3	47.2	43.5	83.2	43.2	164.4	39.7	38.0	49.7	99.5	47.7	195.9	49.9	48.7	50.5	102.8	58.4	210.2	52.4	48.9	62.3	117.3	60.6	230.0	55.0	52.1	65.2	133.1	41.8	220.1	67.9	45.2	0.0	92.8	52.5	192.5	47.3	47.2	63.4	170.5	132.8	445.7	107.1	142.4	118.2	210.2	98.9	396.0	91.9	86.9	106.3	227.6	82.1	405.8	121.3	96.1	74.0	146.0	82.9	310.2	72.0	81.2	87.9	+18.8%
EBITDA / operating income	0.1	-1.5	-0.4	1.6	3.0	5.8	1.1	1.2	6.7	17.1	9.7	44.3	10.5	17.4	11.2	20.2	1.7	24.0	9.0	2.1	2.7	6.4	1.4	8.5	3.8	0.7	0.4	-1.6	-2.0	-9.6	-2.0	-6.0	4.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating expenses	22.3	26.7	36.2	24.6	19.2	61.5	12.7	17.7	22.9	51.8	32.1	113.6	28.9	29.8	32.4	63.1	41.5	140.4	30.7	35.9	47.0	93.1	46.3	187.4	46.1	48.0	50.0	104.4	60.5	219.8	54.4	54.9	58.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net result	-3.0	-4.5	-3.8	-0.3	1.9	1.7	0.1	0.1	5.1	13.0	5.4	32.0	7.9	13.6	6.7	12.2	-3.7	3.7	5.5	-4.8	-2.2	-4.0	-3.8	-12.5	-1.9	-4.6	-5.2	-13.7	-16.9	-42.9	-8.6	-12.2	-9.2	-19.1	1.9	-22.9	-9.9	-5.7	6.5	20.1	-19.5	-6.0	13.6	-6.6	0.0	-16.6	-7.9	-36.8	-8.1	-12.3	-7.0	22.7	54.0	138.5	29.7	61.8	44.1	68.6	27.0	116.8	24.5	21.2	39.2	101.9	6.9	133.0	62.7	24.1	6.3	15.9	12.4	41.0	9.6	12.8	23.6	+274.6%
Declared DPS	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.21	—	—	—	0.31	—	0.08	—	0.38	0.18	0.05	—	0.09	—	0.07	0.1	0.39	—

Full P&L grid — 4 lines × 75 quarters

Line item	FY2011	FY2012	FY2013	H1 2014	Q4 2014	FY2014	Q2 2014	Q3 2014	Q1 2015	H1 2015	Q4 2015	FY2015	Q2 2015	Q3 2015	Q1 2016	H1 2016	Q4 2016	FY2016	Q2 2016	Q3 2016	Q1 2017	H1 2017	Q4 2017	FY2017	Q2 2017	Q3 2017	Q1 2018	H1 2018	Q4 2018	FY2018	Q2 2018	Q3 2018	Q1 2019	H1 2019	Q4 2019	FY2019	Q2 2019	Q3 2019	Q1 2020	H1 2020	Q4 2020	FY2020	Q2 2020	Q3 2020	Q1 2021	H1 2021	Q4 2021	FY2021	Q2 2021	Q3 2021	Q1 2022	H1 2022	Q4 2022	FY2022	Q2 2022	Q3 2022	Q1 2023	H1 2023	Q4 2023	FY2023	Q2 2023	Q3 2023	Q1 2024	H1 2024	Q4 2024	FY2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q1 2025	H1 2025	Q4 2025	FY2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q1 2026
Operating revenues	22.4	25.2	35.9	26.2	22.2	67.3	13.8	18.9	29.6	68.9	41.8	157.9	39.3	47.2	43.5	83.2	43.2	164.4	39.7	38.0	49.7	99.5	47.7	195.9	49.9	48.7	50.5	102.8	58.4	210.2	52.4	48.9	62.3	117.3	60.6	230.0	55.0	52.1	65.2	133.1	41.8	220.1	67.9	45.2	0.0	92.8	52.5	192.5	47.3	47.2	63.4	170.5	132.8	445.7	107.1	142.4	118.2	210.2	98.9	396.0	91.9	86.9	106.3	227.6	82.1	405.8	121.3	96.1	74.0	146.0	82.9	310.2	72.0	81.2	87.9
Operating expenses	22.3	26.7	36.2	24.6	19.2	61.5	12.7	17.7	22.9	51.8	32.1	113.6	28.9	29.8	32.4	63.1	41.5	140.4	30.7	35.9	47.0	93.1	46.3	187.4	46.1	48.0	50.0	104.4	60.5	219.8	54.4	54.9	58.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income	0.1	-1.5	-0.4	1.6	3.0	5.8	1.1	1.2	6.7	17.1	9.7	44.3	10.5	17.4	11.2	20.2	1.7	24.0	9.0	2.1	2.7	6.4	1.4	8.5	3.8	0.7	0.4	-1.6	-2.0	-9.6	-2.0	-6.0	4.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Profit for the period	-3.0	-4.5	-3.8	-0.3	1.9	1.7	0.1	0.1	5.1	13.0	5.4	32.0	7.9	13.6	6.7	12.2	-3.7	3.7	5.5	-4.8	-2.2	-4.0	-3.8	-12.5	-1.9	-4.6	-5.2	-13.7	-16.9	-42.9	-8.6	-12.2	-9.2	-19.1	1.9	-22.9	-9.9	-5.7	6.5	20.1	-19.5	-6.0	13.6	-6.6	-0.0	-16.6	-7.9	-36.8	-8.1	-12.3	-7.0	22.7	54.0	138.5	29.7	61.8	44.1	68.6	27.0	116.8	24.5	21.2	39.2	101.9	6.9	133.0	62.7	24.1	6.3	15.9	12.4	41.0	9.6	12.8	23.6

Realized fleet TCE

Benchmark comparison will appear once issuer-printed benchmark data is available.

Guidance & sources

Issuer guidance — forward-looking

Period	Metric	Value	Coverage	As of	Source
2026Q3	Chemical tankers spot TCE (booked)	$25,000	50%	2026-07-29	—
2026Q3	MR spot TCE (booked)	$29,600	45%	2026-07-29	—

Sources — press, filings & documents

Press & filings by quarter

Quarter	Report	Presentation	Dividend	Other
2026Q3	6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2026Q2	6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K	—	—	—
2026Q1	20-F, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2025Q4	6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2025Q3	6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2025Q2	6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K	—	—	—
2025Q1	20-F, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2024Q4	6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2024Q3	6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2024Q2	6-K, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—
2024Q1	6-K, 20-F, 6-K exhibit, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit, 6-K, 6-K exhibit	—	—	—